UK Diplomats Advised Against Military Action to Topple Robert Mugabe
Recently released papers reveal that the UK's diplomatic corps cautioned against British military action to overthrow the then Zimbabwean president, the long-serving leader, in 2004, advising it was not considered a "viable option".
Policy Papers Show Considerations on Addressing a "Depressingly Healthy" Leader
Internal documents from Tony Blair's government indicate officials considered options on how best to deal with the "remarkably robust" 80-year-old dictator, who declined to leave office as the country fell into violence and economic chaos.
Faced with the ruling party winning a 2005 election, and a year after the UK joined a US-led coalition to oust Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, Downing Street asked the Foreign Office in July 2004 to develop potential options.
Isolation Strategy Considered Not Working
Officials agreed that the UK's policy of isolating Mugabe and building an international consensus for change was not working, having failed to secure support from key African nations, notably the then South African president, the South African leader.
Options outlined in the files included:
- "Attempt to remove Mugabe by force";
- "Go for tougher UK measures" such as seizing finances and shuttering the UK embassy; or
- "Re-engage", the option supported by the then departing ambassador to Zimbabwe.
"We know from Afghanistan, Iraq and Yugoslavia that altering a government and/or its bad policies is exceedingly difficult from the outside."
The diplomatic assessment rejected military action as not a "serious option," and warned that "The only candidate for leading such a armed intervention is the UK. No one else (even the US) would be prepared to do so".
Warnings of Heavy Casualties and Legal Hurdles
It warned that military involvement would result in significant losses and have "serious consequences" for British people in Zimbabwe.
"Barring a severe human and political disaster – resulting in massive violence, large-scale refugee flows, and instability in the region – we judge that no nation in Africa would agree to any efforts to remove Mugabe forcibly."
The document continues: "We also believe that any other European, Commonwealth or western partner (including the US) would sanction or participate in military intervention. And there would be no jurisdictional basis for doing so, without an approving Security Council Resolution, which we would not get."
Long-Term Strategy Recommended
Blair's foreign policy adviser, Laurie Lee, advised Blair that Zimbabwe "could become a significant obstacle" to his plan to use the UK's presidency of the G8 to make 2005 "a pivotal year for Africa". The adviser stated that as military action had been discounted, "we probably have to accept that we must adopt a long-term strategy" and re-open talks with Mugabe.
Blair seemed to concur, noting: "We should work out a way of exposing the lies and malpractice of Mugabe and Zanu-PF up to this election and then afterwards, we could try to re-engage on the basis of a firm agreement."
The then outgoing ambassador, in his valedictory telegram, had advocated cautious renewed contact with Mugabe, though he recognized the Prime Minister "would likely be appalled given all that Mugabe has said and done".
Robert Mugabe was ultimately removed in a 2017 coup, at the age of 93. Previous claims that in the early 2000s Blair had tried to pressure the South African president into joining a armed alliance to overthrow Mugabe were strongly denied by the ex-British leader.
