🔗 Share this article

Back in October 2022, as Rishi Sunak assumed office as the UK's leader, he became the fifth UK leader to take up the position over a six-year span.

Unleashed on the UK by Brexit, this signified exceptional governmental instability. So what term captures what is unfolding in the French Republic, now on its sixth premier in two years – with three in the last ten months?

The current premier, the recently reappointed Sébastien Lecornu, may have secured a temporary reprieve on Tuesday, sacrificing Emmanuel Macron’s flagship pensions overhaul in exchange for support from Socialist lawmakers as the cost of his administration's continuation.

But it is, in the best case, a temporary fix. The EU’s number two economic power is trapped in a ongoing governmental crisis, the likes of which it has not witnessed for decades – possibly not since the establishment of its Fifth French Republic in 1958 – and from which there appears no simple way out.

Minority Rule

Key background: from the moment Macron initiated an ill-advised snap general election in 2024, the nation has had a hung parliament separated into three opposing factions – left, far right and his own centre-right alliance – none with anything close to a majority.

At the same time, the country faces dual debt and deficit crises: its debt-to-GDP ratio and budget shortfall are now almost twice the EU threshold, and hard constitutional deadlines to approve a 2026 budget that starts controlling expenditures are nigh.

In this challenging environment, both Lecornu’s immediate predecessors – Michel Barnier, who lasted from September to December 2024, and François Bayrou, who held the position from December 2024 to September 2025 – were ousted by the assembly.

In September, the leader named his trusted associate Lecornu as his latest PM. But when, a little over two weeks ago, Lecornu presented his government team – which proved to be largely unchanged from before – he encountered anger from allies and opponents alike.

So much so that the next day, he resigned. After only 27 days as premier, Lecornu became the briefest-serving prime minister in modern French history. In a respectful address, he cited political rigidity, saying “party loyalties” and “certain egos” would make his job all but impossible.

Another twist in the tale: just hours after Lecornu’s resignation, Macron requested he remain for another 48 hours in a last-ditch effort to secure multi-party support – a mission, to put it gently, filled with challenges.

Next, two ex-prime ministers publicly turned on the struggling leader. Meanwhile, the right-wing RN and radical left France Unbowed (LFI) declined to engage with Lecornu, vowing to reject any and every new government unless there were early elections.

Lecornu persisted in his duties, talking to everyone who was prepared to hear him out. At the conclusion of his extension, he appeared on television to say he believed “a path still existed” to prevent a vote. The leader's team announced the president would name a fresh premier two days later.

Macron honored his word – and on Friday appointed … Sébastien Lecornu, again. So recently – with Macron helpfully sniping from the sidelines that the nation's opposing groups were “creating discord” and “solely responsible for this chaos” – was Lecornu’s critical test. Would he endure – and can he pass that vital budget?

In a critical address, the 39-year-old PM outlined his financial plans, giving the centre-left Socialist party (PS), who oppose Macron’s unpopular pension overhaul, what they were waiting for: Macron’s flagship reform would be frozen until 2027.

With the conservative Les Républicains (LR) already on board, the Socialists said they would not back no-confidence motions tabled against Lecornu by the far right and radical left – meaning the government should survive those votes, scheduled for Thursday.

It is, however, by no means certain to be able to approve its €30bn austerity budget: the PS explicitly warned that it would be demanding further compromises. “This move,” said its leader, Olivier Faure, “is just the start.”

A Cultural Shift

The issue is, the more Lecornu cedes to the centre-left, the more he will meet resistance from the centre-right. And, similar to the Socialists, the conservatives are themselves split on dealing with the administration – certain members remain eager to bring it down.

A look at the seat numbers shows how tough Lecornu’s task – and future viability – will be. A combined 264 lawmakers from the far-right RN, radical-left LFI, Greens, Communists and hardline-right UDR want him out.

To succeed, they need a 288-vote majority in parliament – so if they can convince only 24 of the PS’s 69 members or the LR’s 47 (or both) to support their motion, Macron’s fifth unstable premier in 24 months is, like his predecessors, toast.

Few would bet against that happening sooner rather than later. Although, by an unlikely turn, the dysfunctional assembly summons up the collective responsibility to approve a budget this year, the prospects for the government beyond that look bleak.

So is there a way out? Early elections would be unlikely to solve the problem: surveys indicate pretty much every party bar the RN would lose seats, but there would still be no clear majority. A fresh premier would confront identical numerical challenges.

An alternative might be for Macron himself to step down. After a presidential vote, his successor would dissolve parliament and aim for a legislative majority in the following election. But that, too, is uncertain.

Surveys show the next occupant of the Elysée Palace will be Le Pen or Bardella. There is at least an strong possibility that France’s voters, having chosen a far-right leader, might reconsider giving them parliamentary power.

Ultimately, France may not emerge from its quagmire until its politicians acknowledge the changed landscape, which is that decisive majorities are a thing of the past, absolute victory is obsolete, and negotiation doesn't mean defeat.

Numerous observers believe that transformation will not be feasible under the country’s current constitution. “This is no conventional parliamentary crisis, but a crise de régime” that will prove anything but temporary.

“The system wasn't built to encourage – and actively discourages – the emergence of governing coalitions common in the rest of Europe. The Fifth Republic may well have entered its terminal phase.”