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Voting has commenced for general elections in Holland, with recent surveys suggesting that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their win the most seats, although experts suggest PVV is unlikely of being part of the next government.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

The PVV, which previously achieved a shock first-place finish and established a four-party right-leaning government that collapsed within a year, is currently slightly leading in the polls and is forecast to secure between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-seat house of representatives.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's support has dipped since 2023, when it won 37 seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out forming a government with Wilders, who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in June amid disagreements concerning his controversial immigration plans.

Key Contenders and Projections

At the end of a election period focused on topics such as migration, medical expenses, and the nation's acute housing shortage, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, projected to gain between 22 to 26 seats.

Also performing well is the centrist D66, projected to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is expected to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the Freedom Party, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with some experiencing significant declines.

Voting Process and Political Division

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just less than one percent of the national vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Of the two dozen political groups contesting the election – which include senior-focused parties, for youth, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and for sport – as many as 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This significant division ensures that no single party is ever likely to win a majority, and Holland has been ruled by multi-party governments – often including four parties in recent governments – for more than a century.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the PVV becomes the largest party yet is shut out of power. But, critics and analysts say that first place does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a majority is democratically valid.

While the final outcome is hard to predict and government negotiations could take several months, analysts suggest that following the most radical administration in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a inclusive coalition led by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, opened at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate post-voting survey is anticipated shortly after the polls close.

After the vote, an official negotiator will explore potential governing alliances that could command a majority in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must face a vote of confidence in parliament before assuming power.